What Netanyahu Knows About Obama Healthcare

Benjamin Netanyahu must be delighted about the healthcare reform debate going on in America. President Obama’s initial attempts to sail a major healthcare bill through Congress has hit some doldrums (or typhoons, depending on whom you ask), and Obama is now fighting just to keep hands on helm. Bibi knows, as everyone knows, that healthcare is a centerpiece of Obama’s presidential agenda, and one the American president has invested his electoral mandate in. Bibi also knows that any Israeli action against Iran, especially war-triggering action, would scuttle Obama’s healthcare initiative by pushing the issue off the media stage, out of the congressional hopper, and farther still from American public favor.

Bibi is in a prime position; an Israeli prime minister is finally able to dictate the terms of Israel's own security arrangements to an American president. By demonstrating that Israel is ready to gear up for bottom-line action against Tehran, and to do so soon, puts the Obama administration in the position of asking Jerusalem to wait – not for the inevitable and complete failure of Iran talks, but for the success of healthcare legislation.

If Israeli intelligence thinks the country can wait then Netanyahu can agree to wait -- provided certain conditions are met. Whether those conditions entail American tactical support for an Israeli strike, guaranteed clearance through US-controlled Iraqi airspace, or any number of other possible preferences, is difficult to say. But either way, Israel could at least gain some initiative on the struggle with Iran – which has clearly emerged as the Jewish State’s most poignant and immediate threat.

Of course, the Obama administration could counter by threatening Israel with various kinds of aid cuts and other reprisals. However, given the American public’s distaste for Iran and its growing awareness of the nuclear issue, it’s unlikely that even a Democratic Congress would make those threats real. Given this uncertainty, and the near certainty that healthcare reform would be washed away by Israeli action against Iran, the wisest and most practical course for the Obama administration would be to appease its ally, even if this finally having to appall an enemy.